[BAA Comets] Comet 29P/Schwassmann-Wachmann update

[Richard Miles]

Dear All,

Additional to the note appended below, further analysis of data indicates that NO outburst will take place on or about March 28 (chance of it happening now only ~5% at best). Although there is always a low probability an outburst can happen on other occasions, I estimate that there's a 50% chance of outburst on 2014 April 28.0 (+/-2.5 days).

Regards,
Richard Miles
  ----- Original Message ----- 
  From: Richard Miles 
  To: comets-ml at yahoogroups.com 
  Cc: BAA Comets discussion list 
  Sent: Monday, March 03, 2014 5:17 PM
  Subject: Re: [comets-ml] 29P S-W1 Outburst : m2 = 14.5


  Excellent result Jean-François,

  Thank you.

  This is the first recorded outburst in nearly 9 months and adds another valuable result to the database.

  We also have Kevin Hills measurement:
        0029P C 2014 3 2.77222   16.5     N  D90 


  So the outburst happened at 2014 March 02.98 +/-0.16 d, i.e. we have the time accurate to about +/-4 hours (st.dev.) which is very helpful.

  That is a nice result and, if confirmed, comes 3.4 days after my prediction of an outburst from an active site on the nucleus which I call "Source B". So not bad after an interval of almost 9 months since the last event.

  It is good to have this accurate time of outburst as it extends the length of the ephemeris to 11.6 years and now totals 36 outbursts. If I include this latest datapoint to make the ephemeris more accurate then the present outburst actually occurred 3.1 days late assuming a linear ephemeris (constant rotation rate of the nucleus). That is just within the previously observed range of times.

  The next significant outburst may (or may not) happen on 2014 Mar 28.9 +/-3.5 d.

  Clear skies,
  Richard Miles
  British Astronomical Association

    ----- Original Message ----- 
    From: Soulier Jean-François 
    To: comets-ml at yahoogroups.com 
    Sent: Monday, March 03, 2014 9:06 AM
    Subject: [comets-ml] 29P S-W1 Outburst : m2 = 14.5


    Good morning.

    Comet comes to a surge of 2.7 (+/-0.2) magnitudes in a few tens of hours !
    We easily found in two stages this increase in magnitude.

    0029P C2014 02 24.35009 15 56 16.42 -29 58 47.1 18.0 N W96

    0029P C2014 02 27.39587 15 56 58.62 -30 05 03.0 16.8 N W96

    0029P C2014 02 28.32770 15 57 10.27 -30 06 54.8 16.9 N W96

    0029P C2014 03 01.23395 15 57 21.02 -30 08 42.4 16.2 N W96

    0029P C2014 03 02.28976 15 57 32.76 -30 10 45.4 17.2 N W96

    0029P C2014 03 03.20230 15 57 42.35 -30 12 29.9 14.5 N W96
    0029P C2014 03 03.24106 15 57 42.73 -30 12 34.4 14.5 N W96
    0029P C2014 03 03.26384 15 57 42.96 -30 12 37.3 14.5 N W96
    0029P C2014 03 03.27993 15 57 43.10 -30 12 38.7 14.5 N W96

    T400RC Remote, SpaceObs., A.Maury, Chile, of always opening radius : 5.52"
    Echant . : 0.69"/pix
    No stars in the field measurements.
    Coma : +/- 21".

    Image comparison DDS and 29P :
    http://6888comete.free.fr/fr/image29PschwassmannwachmannChile.html

    Other stations can they confirm ?

    Sincerely.
    SOULIER Jean-François
    C10/France