[BAA Comets] Observing alert: Next outburst of Comet 29P

[Richard Miles]

The last significant outburst of 29P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 1 took place on 
2013 Jun 12.6+/-0.3 when the nucleus magnitude reached about 12.8. Since 
that time no other marked outburst has been witnessed and it has remained 
around magnitude 16-18 since 2013 mid-July.

The comet was in conjunction with the Sun and not observed from 2013 Sep 21 
to 2013 Dec 12.

Observations during 2014 have shown it as having faded to magnitude 18.0 and 
it is currently in as quiescent a state as it ever reaches. Observers may 
wish to try and detect the rotational lightcurve signature of the nucleus by 
means of inner coma photometry during the next few weeks whilst the coma is 
subdued.

My prediction based on studies of the behaviour of this comet over the last 
few years is that the next significant outburst will take place on 2014 Mar 
28 (+/-5), i.e. in about 4 week's time. The probability of this prediction 
being correct is about 30%.

Richard Miles
BAA

-------------
P.S. The date of this prediction by chance happens to coincide with the 
perihelion date of Comet 17P/Holmes: the first perihelion passage since its 
superoutburst of 2007. That comet may outburst itself close to, or once it 
has passed perihelion.

Good luck to all observers.