[BAA Comets] Observing alert: Next outburst of Comet 29P

[Graham Relf]

On 25/02/2014 11:59, Richard Miles wrote:
> The last significant outburst of 29P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 1 took place 
> on 2013 Jun 12.6+/-0.3 when the nucleus magnitude reached about 12.8. 
> Since that time no other marked outburst has been witnessed and it has 
> remained around magnitude 16-18 since 2013 mid-July.
>
> The comet was in conjunction with the Sun and not observed from 2013 
> Sep 21 to 2013 Dec 12.
>
> Observations during 2014 have shown it as having faded to magnitude 
> 18.0 and it is currently in as quiescent a state as it ever reaches. 
> Observers may wish to try and detect the rotational lightcurve 
> signature of the nucleus by means of inner coma photometry during the 
> next few weeks whilst the coma is subdued.
>
> My prediction based on studies of the behaviour of this comet over the 
> last few years is that the next significant outburst will take place 
> on 2014 Mar 28 (+/-5), i.e. in about 4 week's time. The probability of 
> this prediction being correct is about 30%.
>
> Richard Miles
> BAA
>
> -------------
> P.S. The date of this prediction by chance happens to coincide with 
> the perihelion date of Comet 17P/Holmes: the first perihelion passage 
> since its superoutburst of 2007. That comet may outburst itself close 
> to, or once it has passed perihelion.
>
> Good luck to all observers.
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In response to Richard's PS, I have added a chart for 17P/Holmes to 
http://britastro.org/computing/charts_comet.html in the hope that we 
might get an outburst again this time round.

I was very surprised that I could find no images of this comet in the 
BAA gallery.

Graham