[BAA Comets] Observing alert: Next outburst of Comet 29P

[Graham Relf]

On 25/02/2014 17:29, denis buczynski wrote:
> Hi Graham.
>
> I misread your email, I thought you were reffering to 29P but now realise that you were referring to 17P .
>
> There are BAA Comet Section images of 17P in the archive. These can be found at this link:
>
> http://www.ast.cam.ac.uk/~jds/images/
> Denis
>
>
>> ________________________________
>> From: denis buczynski <buczynski8166 at btinternet.com>
>> To: BAA Comets discussion list <comets-disc at britastro.org>
>> Sent: Tuesday, February 25, 2014 5:14 PM
>> Subject: Re: [BAA Comets] Observing alert:  Next outburst of Comet 29P
>>
>>
>> Hi Graham ,
>> There are 20 images of 29P on the BAA Comet Gallery at this link:
>> http://britastro.org/baa/index.php?view=category&catid=14&option=com_joomgallery&Itemid=200
>> Best wishes
>>
>> Denis
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>> ________________________________
>>> From: Graham Relf <gr at grelf.net>
>>> To: comets-disc at britastro.org
>>> Sent: Tuesday, February 25, 2014 4:54 PM
>>> Subject: Re: [BAA Comets] Observing alert:  Next outburst of Comet 29P
>>>
>>>
>>> On 25/02/2014 11:59, Richard Miles wrote:
>>>> The last significant outburst of 29P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 1 took place on 2013 Jun 12.6+/-0.3 when the nucleus magnitude reached about 12.8. Since that time no other marked outburst has been witnessed and it has remained around magnitude 16-18 since 2013 mid-July.
>>>>
>>>> The comet was in conjunction with the Sun and not observed from 2013 Sep 21 to 2013 Dec 12.
>>>>
>>>> Observations during 2014 have shown it as having faded to magnitude 18.0 and it is currently in as quiescent a state as it ever reaches. Observers may wish to try and detect the rotational lightcurve signature of the nucleus by means of inner coma photometry during the next few weeks whilst the coma is subdued.
>>>>
>>>> My prediction based on studies of the behaviour of this comet over the last few years is that the next significant outburst will take place on 2014 Mar 28 (+/-5), i.e. in about 4 week's time. The probability of this prediction being correct is about 30%.
>>>>
>>>> Richard Miles
>>>> BAA
>>>>
>>>> -------------
>>>> P.S. The date of this prediction by chance happens to coincide with the perihelion date of Comet 17P/Holmes: the first perihelion passage since its superoutburst of 2007. That comet may outburst itself close to, or once it has passed perihelion.
>>>>
>>>> Good luck to all observers.
>>>> _______________________________________________
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>>> In response to Richard's PS, I have added a chart for 17P/Holmes to http://britastro.org/computing/charts_comet.html in the hope that we might get an outburst again this time round.
>>>
>>> I was very surprised that I could find no images of this comet in the BAA gallery.
>>>
>>> Graham
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>>>
>>>
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Thanks Denis.

I have reworded my note against the chart link.

Graham