I think yours is a nicer picture though. I had to remove a sky background from each frame of mine before creating the gif. The result is rather nosy.

Your measurement suggests a mag brighter than last night. Will be even nearer tonight.

One query. Can I assume reentry is over the US so we won't see it? Its a hot arrival with a double "bounce" apparently. Does that put first bounce over the atlantic at 17:00ish?

Assuming no course corrections the astrometry we have shows contact with the Earth at at 11 Dec 2022 17:31:23.84 UTC at lat -20.82961 lon W122.42014:

https://projectpluto.com/pluto/mpecs/orion.htm

That's in the South Pacific. The splashdown will actually be off the coast of California. We get a good view of  it right up to the night of December 10th.

As of 13:00 the JPL Horizons system seemed to be refusing to serve up a positional predictions. 

Could you remind me how its possible to get a prediction for my Long/Lat from Project Pluto please.

Horizons is working for me but the other source is Bill Gray's pages:

https://projectpluto.com/pluto/mpecs/orion.htm

https://github.com/Bill-Gray/tles/blob/master/22156a.tle#L196

The second link gives you perturbed TLEs for each segment of the return path.

The artsat page here:

https://projectpluto.com/sat_eph.htm

Doesn't have Orion on it.

Thanks for all that. I shall try that link.

I tried Horizons again the next day and it worked fine. By chance I realised I had downloaded a 48hr prediction the day before, so I got Artemis again last night. Though things iced up after 1am.