The attached plot should allow you to determine the visibility at your location. Use the ground track and launch profile plots to determine the altitude and great circle distance from your observing site and the curves show how far above the horizon the launcher will be. For example if it is 1000 km away and 150 km in altitude it will be around 4 degrees above your horizon.
First stage burnout (MECO) is at around 180s and occurs at an altitude of around 75km. For the far southwest tip of Cornwall the ground track shows a great circle distance of around 450km. This corresponds to an elevation of around 10 deg above the horizon so the first stage should be visible from Cornwall if the weather cooperates. The visibility from SW Ireland is similar.
If anyone gets any video or images please send them to me. I can include them in the Sky Notes at the next meeting.
