Reply To: Preparing for the eruption of T CrB

Forums Variable Stars Preparing for the eruption of T CrB Reply To: Preparing for the eruption of T CrB

#624318
Jeremy Shears
Participant

No real updates on Brad’s prediction of the eruption during his webinar. His best prediction is based on fitting the light curve from ~2015 to now with the light curve leading up to the 1946 eruption which gives 2024.4 +/- 0.3. He reckons we are at, or near, the bottom of the pre-eruption dip. He was saying the eruption could therefore be any day now, as we are still in his predicted Feb to Sep window. It could also be in the next weeks or months, but likely before the end of the year.

Brad also discussed his analysis of the intervals between the 4 known eruptions (1946, 1866, 1787, 1217), which leads to ~2024.7 for the next one, i.e. ~ September.