Great stuff, Richard.
The canonical theory is that the secondary transfers mass to the white dwarf and at a certain point sufficient material builds up on the surface of the WD to trigger a thermonuclear runway. The problem, of course, is we don’t know how far away from that point we are as we cannot measure it.
It will all become clear with hindsight and this time round we will have the most detailed understanding of the events immediately before and after the eruption to post rationalise it all. At least we now have an additional datapoint from 1946 thanks to Michael Woodman.
I’m meeting Brad Schaefer in November and it will be interesting to hear his latest thinking.