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We’re detecting a few Geminids as they build up to this year’s display. Maximum is predicted to occur around solar longitude 262.0 degrees which equates to 02:50 UT on Dec 14, so the night of Dec 13/14 should give the highest meteor rates. The waning crescent Moon will have minimal effect on the display,
The Geminids present a broad maximum lasting about 10 hours and it can be double-peaked. During this time the ZHR often exceeds 100 and short-lived bursts of an hour or two can increase it to nearly 150. Actual observed rates under a dark sky can be one per minute. Immediately after maximum we see evidence of particle sorting in the meteoroid stream when it can produce an abundance of bright Geminids, leaving some of the best until last. The Geminids’ activity profile is skewed, in that the descent from maximum is steep and within 24 hours their ZHR can fall to 20 or so.
The weather forecast looks to be decidedly soggy for the next few days. Fingers crossed for some breaks in the rain clouds this weekend.
Alex.
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