Thanks Jeremy for clarifying the thinking behind Brad Schaefer’s predicted eruption date of 2024.4 ± 0.3 and the two refs that you pointed to – they both worked fine in the end. The pre-eruption dip looks to be a good harbinger although what happened re. its high state before and after the 1946 event does seem to assume that the object will follow a similar behaviour as last time. We shall see!
btw: Since my earlier message, I have had some useful feedback privately from Graeme Waddington about heliacal rising/setting of stars. It sets a good example of how the BAA Forum can work well.
Richard