Reply To: Asteroid to pass by Earth this weekend

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#616531
Nick James
Participant

The initial orbit of 2023 DZ2 was quite uncertain and the close approach distance was uncertain too. At one point the probability of impact at the next close approach (2026-03-27) was 1 in 670. This got the media interested. By March 17 the most likely miss distance this time around was 180,000 km. This gradually got revised and some old observations were found dating back to January so by March 20 we knew that the minimum geocentric distance was going to be near 175,000 km.

Far from being a possible impact in 2026 the miss distance will actually be around a million km. This shows how chaotic gravitational perturbations are for close approaches where a small inbound trajectory error can lead to a much larger outbound one.