Asteroid 2024 YR4 – Close approach in 2032 – Risk of Earth impact

Forums Asteroids Asteroid 2024 YR4 – Close approach in 2032 – Risk of Earth impact

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  • #627887
    Alex Pratt
    Participant

    See this discussion on the Minor Planet Mailing List

    https://groups.io/g/mpml/message/40160

    also

    https://www.esa.int/Space_Safety/Planetary_Defence/ESA_actively_monitoring_near-Earth_asteroid_2024_YR4

    and the attached Close Approach Fact Sheet from ESA

    Read the facts about this NEO before ‘journalists’ go into hyperbolic warp drive about Doomsday scenarios…

    Alex.

    #628049
    Nick James
    Participant

    The madness has already begun. Stories written by journos who don’t really understand orbital dynamics and probability and headlines attached by sub-eds to maximise click-through.

    Apparently, if you live on the Moon, you should now be very afraid:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/space/asteroid-heading-earth-2024-yr4-moon-china-b2696593.html

    This is at the less sensational end of the spectrum. Google will bring up others.

    This is all based on some reasonable statements from David Rankin that have been mildly sensationalised in New Scientist and then got the full treatment in the “popular” media.

    #630287
    Nick James
    Participant

    This interesting paper has jus been posted on Archiv:

    https://arxiv.org/pdf/2506.11217

    The authors consider the potential effect of a lunar impact of 2024 YR4 on 2032 December 22. They conclude that it could temporarily increase the flux of mm sized meteoroids in near-Earth space by several orders of magnitude. This could be bad news for spacecraft in low-earth orbit but might give us a nice meteor shower.

    The probability of a lunar impact is currently around 4% and the high end of their flux predictions require some relatively unlikely alignments to happen but it is definitely an interesting read.

    #630288
    Steve Knight
    Participant

    Interesting!

    Looks like a 4% chance of a visit to Australia on Dec 22nd 2032. The view of the Earth from the Moon at possible impact time.

    Attachments:
    #630290
    Nick James
    Participant

    Steve – Indeed. We’ll have plenty of time to plan following the next perigee in late 2028!

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