Clustered flaring satellites (not Iridium)

[John Rogers]

Can anyone identify a remarkable family of satellites that I have seen, by chance, twice in recent weeks?  They produce Iridium-like flares, but are apparently not Iridiums, and they travel in tight clusters.

The first occasion was on May 27 at 22:24 BST (21:24 UT).  I saw 3 Iridium-like flares within less than a minute and a only a few degrees apart, each one lasting a few seconds, reaching negative magnitudes.  Each one faded as the next one started, and I had the impression that they formed a roughly equilateral triangle.  They were ~45 deg up in the SW, near Denebola, moving vertically upwards.

The second occasion was on June 12, at 23:44 BST (22:44 UT).  Turning round I saw a pair of brilliant satellites only ~1.5 deg apart, each as bright as Jupiter (mag. -3).  They remained so bright for several seconds then gradually faded, but remained visible for perhaps half a minute at mag. +4 (as faint as could be seen as they were moving into thin haze).  They were ~30 deg up in the SW, near e Vir and above Jupiter, again moving vertically upwards, very slowly, probably slower than Iridiums.

–John Rogers.

[William Stewart]

Hi John,

The formation of satellites you observed on May 27th were the Yaogan 16 Triplet (Sat # 39011, 39012 & 39013) which are widely suspected as being Chinese Military Satellites – see here for some additional details.

The other formation on June 12th were the US Military NOSS 3-3 Pair (Sat #28537 & 28541) – see here for details.

Skycharts attached – an internet search will provide some additional background on what these satellites are believed to be up to.

Best regards

William

[John Rogers]

Hi William,

Many thanks — I’m impressed that you were able to identify them and that they were different, military satellites.

Do you know if it is possible to predict these flares from them?

Cheers, John.

[William Stewart]

Hi John,

The short answer is no, it’s unlikely that the flares could be predicted however the reason for this answer deserves a more detailed explanation.

To an observer on the ground a satellite appears to flare due to the fact that a certain part of the satellite is reflecting an image of the sun down on to a particular spot on the earth. If it is a large, flat, highly reflective panel (such as the main mission antennae (MMA) on Iridium satellites) then the reflected image of the sun’s disk is well constrained into a relatively small area (typically a few 10s of km across) and the flare has the potential to be very bright. If however the reflective surface is not flat then the reflected light is scattered into a wider area and hence the flare will not be as bright.

As the earth orbits the sun and rotates on its axis, and the satellite moves in its orbit around the earth, the relative positions of the sun and satellite change and the position of the spot of reflected sunlight moves across the face of the earth. An observer on the ground therefore sees the flare if they happen to be on the track of the reflected spot of light as it moves across the face of the earth.

If we know the date, time, observer’s position on the surface of the earth and position of the satellite then we have enough information to determine if the satellite is above the observer’s local horizon (while the observer is in darkness) and the satellite is in sunlight – this is the basis for all predictions of satellite visibility.

In order to determine if a flare will occur we need to know some additional information, specifically:

1. The satellite’s shape / structure (does it have a large, relatively flat shiny panel?)

2. If such a panel exists, is the satellite’s attitude in orbit maintained in such a way that the orientation of the panel can be reliably predicted.

In the case of Iridium flares, the answers to 1 and 2 are both “Yes”. Each Iridium satellite has three MMAs (large, flat, shiny panels that are located at 120 degree intervals around the main satellite bus, tilted out at a specific angle) and the satellite’s attitude with respect to the surface of the earth and it’s orbital trajectory are maintained with a high degree of precision: the main satellite bus is orientated vertically with respect to the surface of the earth and one of the MMAs always faces into the direction of flight.

The problem we have with military satellites is that we do not know much about 1 and 2 as this information is typically classified. The fact that you’ve seen flares suggests that there is a reasonably flat shiny panel on the satellites. Is this a solar panel, an optical sensor, a communications dish or a RADAR antenna? We don’t know – and even if we did, are the positions of these predictable (and in the public domain) in advance? No, I’m afraid they are not.

Another complication is that the orbital elements of military satellites are not always very precise. For the Chinese Yaogan satellites, the US Military does helpfully make these publicly available (typically updated twice per day based RADAR returns) however they do not do the same for their own military satellites. The orbital elements for these are derived by the amateur community from visual observations and while reasonably accurate, an error of a few seconds could lead to a large uncertainty in flare visibility for a given position on the surface of the earth.

Given enough observations it may be possible to build a model that could be tested and refined. This is what actually occurred with Iridium Flares – the flares were not predicted in advance – it was by noting that flares were occasionally seen and by reviewing publicly available information (regarding the satellite’s structure and attitude maintenance) that a model was built, tested and proven to be accurate.

On a final note, the current Iridium satellite fleet is approaching the end of its operational life and they are being replaced by next generation models which do not share the same design MMAs of the current satellites. In time the older satellites will be decommissioned and their attitude will no longer by maintained. Hence the ability to accurately predict Iridium Flares will decrease. Enjoy them while you can!

Best regards

William

[John Bell]

Here’s a link to a video I made during the 2013 Perseids.I think it shows the triangular cluster pretty well https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fp_kaiPZgWQ

.

[John Rogers]

Thanks, William and John, for these very informative replies. 

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