Preparing for the next eruption of T CrB

[Robin Leadbeater]

Here is the latest “prediction”
https://www.astronomerstelegram.org/?read=17784
Though given it appears to be based on the same premise as Brad Schaefer’s original (failed) prediction, I don’t think will be rushing down to the bookies !

Cheers
Robin

[Dr Paul Leyland]

Jeremy Shears wrote:

They note: “While T CrB clearly appears to be in the final stages before its next nova eruption, our analysis of its historical recurrence pattern suggests a significant scatter of at least 10 years around the mean ∼80-year period. Therefore, while an eruption is anticipated, the existing data do not allow for a precise prediction of its timing”.

Another NR which shows a scatter of about 10% of its mean period is M31N-2008-12a. The period is about one year with variability of about a month. The period so short that several eruptions have been observed.

The sample size is so small, IMO, that it is impossible to say whether this is typical behaviour.

Paul

[Author]

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