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No real updates on Brad’s prediction of the eruption during his webinar. His best prediction is based on fitting the light curve from ~2015 to now with the light curve leading up to the 1946 eruption which gives 2024.4 +/- 0.3. He reckons we are at, or near, the bottom of the pre-eruption dip. He was saying the eruption could therefore be any day now, as we are still in his predicted Feb to Sep window. It could also be in the next weeks or months, but likely before the end of the year.
Brad also discussed his analysis of the intervals between the 4 known eruptions (1946, 1866, 1787, 1217), which leads to ~2024.7 for the next one, i.e. ~ September.
So far it has followed a pretty linear decline. Well worth continuing to watch.
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These are fairly small variations, Magnus, so it might be that superhumps haven’t started yet if the outburst is still in its early stages. In previous superoutbursts, orbital humps (~0.1 mag amp) appear first, followed by larger superhumps after ~3 days. Definitely worth following over the next nights.
Invitation to Brad Schaefer’s Zoom talk on August 17th regarding the predicted eruption of T CrB
I am sharing this invitation from Edwin Aguirre about this Zoom talk on August 17 (Saturday) at 1:30 p.m. UTC (14.30 BST)
It will be interesting to hear his prediction for the time of the eruption.Jeremy
I would like to invite you and the BAA members to Brad Schaefer’s Zoom talk on August 17 (Saturday) at 9:30 a.m. EDT (1:30 p.m. UTC) regarding the anticipated eruption of T Coronae Borealis. The talk is free and open to the public.
Attached are the details of Brad’s online talk. In addition to Zoom, the event will be streamed on Facebook Live and recorded for YouTube viewers.
NOTE: Everyone needs to register first in order to get the Zoom link for the webinar. You can either scan the QR code on the attached announcement with your cellphone or go directly to the Zoom registration page:
https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_Bm_NLfhkSQyG0Es31OYkqg#/registration
Brad’s talk is part of the “Astronomy Experts Speaker Series” that Imelda and I started two years ago in collaboration with the Astronomical League of the Philippines. As you know, the Philippines is a relatively small developing country in Southeast Asia, and many people there cannot afford to travel overseas to attend astronomy seminars and conferences.
So, our goal is to help raise public science literacy and awareness in the country by inviting renowned scientists, researchers and science communicators to share their knowledge and expertise online with the Filipino people through our Zoom webinar series. It is all part of our international astronomy educational outreach efforts.
To date, our guest speakers have included:
Prof. Jay Pasachoff (Williams College), who talked about his 2021 Antarctic solar eclipse expedition
Zolt Levay (STScI), who discussed the Hubble Space Telescope’s most iconic images
Dave Eicher (Astronomy magazine editor-in-chief), who spoke about galaxies and galaxy classification
Fred Espenak (Mr. Eclipse), who talked about predicting and chasing total solar eclipses
J. Kelly Beatty (Sky & Telescope magazine senior editor), who spoke about the fight against light pollution
David Levy on how he and the Shoemakers discovered Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9
Heidi Hammel (AURA vice president for science), who spoke about the James Webb Space Telescope’s latest findings
Dan Green (CBAT director), who discussed the nature of comets
Debbie Elmegreen (IAU president), who talked about galaxies at the dawn of the Universe
Father Chris Corbally, S.J. (Vatican Observatory/Steward Observatory), who explained the mystery of “The Star of Bethlehem”
Brother Robert Macke, S.J. (Curator of the Vatican Observatory’s meteorite collection at Castel Gandolfo, Italy), who talked about meteorites, asteroid 101955 Bennu, and the OSIRIS-REx mission
Brother Guy Consolmagno, S.J. (Vatican Observatory director), who talked about Vesta and the Dawn mission
Valentin M. Pillet (National Solar Observatory director), who discussed the solar corona and the current Solar Cycle 25
Mike Brown (Caltech), who talked about Pluto and the search for Planet Nine
Robert Nemiroff (Michigan Tech), co-founder and editor of NASA’s Astronomy Picture of the Day (APOD)
Jonathan McDowell (Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics), who spoke about the Chandra X-ray Observatory and the invisible Universe.
For fall/winter, we plan to have Meg Urry (Yale University), who will talk about the supermassive black hole lurking at the center of the Milky Way, and Michael S. Kelley, program scientist for the Planetary Defense Coordination Office at NASA Headquarters, who will discuss the impact threat posed by NEOs, and for next year, NASA astronaut Don Pettit, who will talk about astrophotography from the International Space Station. We are currently finalizing the schedules for their respective webinars.We hope you can join us for Brad’s talk on the 17th!
Best regards,
Edwin
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Fascinating details in the light curve you are picking up in your photometry, Ian! Intriguing slow rise during quiescence, followed by a drop leading into the next outburst.
Great to see these reports and images. Will be even closer the next couple of nights, so let’s hope for clear skies!
We used to silver the 14-inch mirror of the school telescope back in the 70s under the supervision of Commander Hatfield. This was followed by careful burnishing, a critical step, as Richard pointed out. It was a useful demonstration of chemistry in action. And more impressive than carrying out Tollen’s test for reducing sugars in a tiny test tube that we performed in the biology labs.
That would be very sad indeed. I recall a wonderful visit to the Mills Observatory during the BAA weekend meeting in Dundee in 2016.
Not as good as the display that Premier Inn mounts: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c04348v8r9eo
